Freight demand remains relatively soft, but tighter capacity and higher operating costs are changing what trucking rates shippers pay to move goods.
Here’s a freight market contradiction worth understanding:
There isn’t necessarily more freight to move. But moving it is getting more expensive.
For years, shippers became accustomed to a trucking market with more available capacity than freight demand could support. Carriers competed aggressively for loads, and transportation buyers often had considerable negotiating leverage. Now, that balance is changing.
Truckload rates have been climbing in 2026 even as overall freight volumes remain uneven. The explanation isn’t a sudden surge in consumer spending. Available trucking capacity has tightened, while operating costs keep rising.
For importers and domestic shippers, this changes how they should manage transportation budgets and carrier relationships.
1. Fewer Available Trucks Can Mean Higher Rates
Freight pricing depends on both demand and supply. When freight volumes decline, rates often fall because more carriers are competing for fewer shipments. But when trucking capacity contracts at the same time, the outcome can be different.
After several years of weak rates, some small carriers and owner-operators have exited the market. Other fleets have reduced equipment purchases, limited expansion, or become more selective about the freight they accept.
As a result, certain markets have fewer trucks available.
Even without meaningful freight volume growth, competition for the remaining trucks can push prices higher. A softer freight market doesn’t automatically mean trucks are easy to find.
2. Operating Costs Keep Pressure on Carrier Pricing
The economics of running a trucking business have also changed. According to the American Transportation Research Institute’s 2026 operational cost study, the average cost to operate a truck reached $2.336 per mile in 2025, up 3.4% from the previous year.
Excluding fuel, costs rose 4.2% to $1.854 per mile. Several operating expenses increased substantially:
- Tolls: 13.2%
- Repair and maintenance: 8.6%
- Driver benefits: 6.6%
- Tires: 6.4%
These figures illustrate why carriers may struggle to accept lower-paying loads, even when freight demand is modest. Insurance, equipment costs, maintenance, and other overhead expenses don’t disappear when a truck sits idle. For carriers operating on thin margins, declining an unprofitable shipment may be more sustainable than moving it at a loss.
3. Spot Rates Are Moving Faster Than Contract Rates
The difference between spot and contract pricing matters. Spot rates respond quickly to changes in available capacity. Contract rates generally adjust more gradually as agreements are renewed or renegotiated.
An April 2026 report from Commercial Carrier Journal, citing U.S. Bank and DAT data, found that between March 2025 and February 2026:
- Spot linehaul rates increased approximately 23.3%.
- Contract rates increased approximately 5%.
- Spot shipment volumes declined approximately 3.7%.
- Contract shipment volumes fell approximately 22.1%.
Those figures describe a specific reporting period and set of market benchmarks, not every individual shipping lane. Still, the pattern is revealing. Prices increased even as measured freight activity declined.
For shippers, this can mean greater exposure when a contracted carrier rejects a load, and shippers must buy replacement transportation at current market rates.
4. Regulatory Enforcement Can Affect Available Capacity
Driver qualification and safety enforcement can also influence trucking capacity. When drivers or carriers fail to meet applicable requirements, enforcement actions may remove them from service until they resolve compliance issues. That can reduce available capacity in affected markets.
However, it’s inaccurate to attribute all recent rate increases to regulation or assume every enforcement-related removal is permanent. Carrier profitability, equipment investment, operating expenses, and regional demand patterns remain major factors. The broader point is that available trucking capacity depends on more than the number of registered trucks. It also depends on which carriers and drivers are actively operating and willing to accept a particular shipment.
5. Regional and Specialized Freight Markets Behave Differently
National freight trends don’t tell the whole story.
Infrastructure projects, energy development, manufacturing activity, and data center construction can create concentrated demand for flatbed, heavy-haul, and specialized transportation. Meanwhile, standard dry van demand may remain comparatively soft. Seasonal agricultural movements and regional imbalances can also make trucks harder to secure on particular lanes.
That’s why a shipper may see a significant rate increase in one market while pricing remains relatively stable elsewhere. The relevant question isn’t just whether national freight volumes are growing. It’s whether suitable capacity is available where and when your shipment needs it.
What Shippers Should Do Now
As the fourth quarter progresses, businesses should review their transportation plans with these market conditions in mind. Start by identifying lanes where rates are increasing, carrier acceptance is declining, or spot-market purchases are becoming more frequent.
Then evaluate the full transportation picture:
- Review carrier reliability. A low contracted rate matters little if the carrier repeatedly rejects shipments.
- Provide better forecasts. Advance notice of shipment volumes and pickup requirements helps transportation partners plan capacity.
- Build flexibility into budgets. Allow for potential rate adjustments and higher replacement-carrier costs.
- Consider mode alternatives. Intermodal or other transportation arrangements may make sense for shipments with suitable transit requirements.
- Avoid last-minute bookings where possible. More lead time can give you more carrier options.
At Everglory Logistics, we understand that reliable freight planning requires attention to changing transportation costs, available capacity, and delivery requirements.
Shippers shouldn’t assume that soft freight volumes guarantee lower trucking prices. In today’s market, load volume matters. But the number of trucks willing and able to move them matters just as much.
